Introduction
India's foreign policy under Narendra Modi's third term faces a blend of challenges and opportunities.
With a stable leadership at the Ministry of External Affairs, there is expected continuity but also necessary recalibration to address the evolving global landscape and strategic imperatives of India.
The Neighborhood
South Asia Engagement
The inauguration of Modi's government saw attendance from leaders of Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles, emphasizing regional ties. Notably absent were Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Myanmar.
Pakistan: Relations with Pakistan remain strained due to historical conflicts, recent terror attacks, and changes in leadership dynamics. India maintains a stance of no dialogue amidst terrorism threats. The Modi government’s approach has been influenced by the terrorist attacks in Pathankot and Uri in 2016, and the Pulwama attack in 2019. Recent terror activities in J&K further complicate any prospects of engagement.
Afghanistan: Limited engagement with the Taliban-led Afghanistan continues, focusing on humanitarian aid through a technical team. High-level engagement remains unlikely as India carefully navigates its stance amidst the ongoing instability in Afghanistan.
Myanmar: Strategic engagement is challenged by the internal conflict within Myanmar's junta government. Indian strategic circles suggest engaging with opposition groups due to the potential collapse of the current government.
Maldives: Relations have seen a cautious improvement post the "India Out" campaign. President Mohamed Muizzu’s visit marked a significant step, and the replacement of military personnel with trained technical personnel shows a willingness to engage diplomatically.
Bangladesh: Campaign rhetoric often strains ties, but both nations have mutual interests in combating extremism, radicalization, and terrorism. Greater restraint in rhetoric during the new tenure is expected to benefit bilateral relations.
Bhutan: India continues to support Bhutan against Chinese territorial negotiations. Assistance in Bhutan’s five-year plan and the Gelephu mindfulness city project underscores the strategic importance of maintaining close ties.
Nepal: Relations require careful handling due to China's influence and recent political developments in Nepal. The decision to put the unilaterally redrawn borders of Nepal on its national currency signifies ongoing tensions. Efforts are needed to rebuild trust post the economic blockade of 2015.
Sri Lanka: India aims to bolster Sri Lanka's economy amidst its financial crisis. However, election rhetoric in Tamil Nadu regarding Katchatheevu poses challenges. Strengthening economic ties remains a priority.
Seychelles & Mauritius: India focuses on maritime diplomacy and infrastructure development in these strategic locations. Success at Agalega Islands and challenges at Assumption Island reflect ongoing efforts in the Indian Ocean Region.
Western Countries
Strategic Partnerships and Challenges
India's engagement with Western nations has been largely transactional, with strong strategic ties to the US, Europe, Japan, and Australia.
United States: Bilateral ties are expected to remain strong regardless of the US election outcomes, driven by defense and technology collaborations. Despite occasional friction over Western media criticism, the strategic partnership is robust.
Europe: Economic and political ties are strengthening, with ongoing negotiations for Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the EU and the UK. France and Germany have been particularly important partners.
Canada: Political ties remain strained due to accusations from Canada regarding India's involvement in the murder of a Khalistani separatist. Economic ties and student exchanges continue unaffected, though diplomatic relations are expected to remain tense until the Canadian elections in 2025.
Challenges with Western Criticism
There has been significant noise about Western "interference," particularly related to criticism from Western media.
The Indian government has shown sensitivity to such criticism, as demonstrated by demarches issued against friendly Western governments like the US and Germany
India might need to adopt a more resilient approach to maintain smooth diplomatic relations.
The China Challenge
Border and Strategic Dynamics
The border standoff with China persists, requiring careful diplomatic navigation
The standoff, now entering its fifth year, involves a significant military presence on both sides, with around 50,000-60,000 troops and weapons stationed along the border.
High-level engagements, including Modi's planned meeting with President Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan on the sidelines of the SCO summit, aim to address these issues.
Russia and Ukraine Conflict
Balancing Relations
India's historical defense ties with Russia and the current dependency on Russian energy complicate its stance amidst the Ukraine conflict. India maintains a delicate balance, advocating for dialogue and diplomacy.
The availability of cheaper oil from Russia has added another layer of complexity to these relations
India is likely to emphasize the need for peace and dialogue at the June 15-16 peace conference in Switzerland, though high-level participation from India is unlikely given Russia’s absence from the event.
High Stakes in West Asia
Regional Influence and Economic Interests
Modi's administration has cultivated strong ties with West Asian nations, balancing relationships across geopolitical divides to secure energy, investments, and protect the Indian diaspora.
Strategic Projects: Initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), I2U2, and the International North South Transit Corridor (INSTC) highlight India's ambitions but face uncertainties due to regional conflicts like the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Conclusion
India's Strategic Foreign Policy under Modi 3.0 aims to navigate a complex global landscape, balancing strategic interests, regional stability, and economic growth
The administration's approach to international relations will be pivotal in securing India's position on the global stage.
(India foreign policy, Modi 3.0, Narendra Modi, Ministry of External Affairs, South Asia diplomacy, Pakistan-India relations, Afghanistan-India engagement, Myanmar conflict, Maldives-India relations, Bangladesh-India ties, Bhutan-India support, Nepal-India relations, Sri Lanka financial aid, Seychelles maritime diplomacy, Mauritius port development, US-India strategic ties, India-EU FTA, India-UK FTA, Canada-India political strain, India-China border standoff, Russia-India defense ties, Ukraine conflict, West Asia investments, IMEC, I2U2, INSTC, Indian diaspora in West Asia, global strategic imperatives, international relations)
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